Tuesday, April 13, 2004

DUTCH DEMOGRAPHICS: Via Crooked Timber, I found an excellent analysis by Randy McDonald of the Muslim population in France. Consider the following, for example.

If [the French Muslim] population grew for the next 50 years at a rate of 2% per annum (a high rate, and one that doesn’t seem to be supported by signs of an ongoing demographic transition), while the remainder of the population shrunk at a rate of 0.5% per annum (also a high rate of decrease, and one that doesn’t seem likely to be achieved for a while given generally high French fertility rates), at the end of this 50 year period the total French population would have shrunk by 9%, and France’s Muslim population would amount to roughly one-fifth of the total. You’d have to wait for a century to approach a position of parity between the two populations, assuming the same unrealistic growth rates. This is definitely not any sort of imminent threat...
Unfortunately, Randy only offers hypothetical population growth percentages and doesn't give us the actual growth percentage.

The Netherlands offers a vindication too. The Central Bureau of Statistics, the Dutch version of the American Census bureau, published a report called "Immigrants in the Netherlands, 2003" [It's a .pdf-file and it's in Dutch--ed.]. It says the following:

  • In the year 2002, the non-immigrant* population grew by 0,10% while the non-Western immigrant population* grew by 4,0%.

  • "Not-western immigrants see to for a large part of the growth of the Dutch population. Between 1995 and 2003, they grew by 490 thousand, while during the same period the total population grew by 770 thousand. ... CBS expects the non-Western immigration to total 3,5 million in 2050. In 2003, they total about 1,6 million. ... Starting in 2007, the non-immigrant population will decrease ... [They] will total 11,9 million in 2050, down from 13,2 million in 2003."

  • Remember also, that these are predictions and statistics of non-Western immigrants; not Muslims (immigrants.) Only a mere 56% of non-Western immigrants are estimated to be of Islamic faith.

    * Non-immigrant --> Native Dutch citizens
    ** Non-Western immigrant population --> Immigrants from outside the European continent

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